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| 6/14/2002 | | | THE JOHNSON COLLECTION | |
| Lewis P. Johnson has been a leader in developing the new interactive environments in museum exhibitions. | | | | Here we are nearing the end of the first quarter of 2002 and the question remains, "A' re we in or out of a recession?"
By now, Alan Greenspan should be deciding whether the recovery will take place later this year or if indeed the turnaround is occurring at this moment. There have been encouraging signs of stabilization, but the chairman of the Federal Reserve is reluctant to indicate that a steady recovery is indeed at hand.
Many private forecasters feel economic growth for the first quarter will exceed their previous expectations.
It will be interesting to watch the activity and certainly the direction of the trends as this impacts directly on our over all businesses be they trade shows, meetings or even museums.
So much of the marketplace activity has been overshadowed by the effect of 9/11 1 on our businesses and our lives. We are indeed, as noted before, living a different lifestyle in a different world. The world has not really changed, but our interpretation of our position on this globe has been altered significantly.
I dwell on much of this because all of the foregoing will determine ways in which we should respond to maintain the forward and upward movement of our businesses as well as our daily lives.
There has been a strong negative impact on the field of business marketing over the past months. Uncertainty and indecision have been prominent factors among the corporations, and individuals, responsible for the business trends. Unfortunately, there have been some I feel have taken advantage of this situation to eliminate what they describe as excessive personnel. Instead of creating new marketing programs, including new products or services, they
have opted for a recessive activity and downsized.
The negative impact of the over expanded electronic marketplace played its role in the current setback. Too much too soon was evident as was the lack of adequate and efficient business planning. This seems to have run its course, however.
In previous columns I have pointed to the growth and expansion of convention centers nationwide. This trend has given the business of shows and meetings a positive outlook for the future. The additional facilities and space will give more associations, planners and promoters a greater sense of freedom in their abilities to move ahead with programs with a positive upward trend. Space needed in all areas of the country will be there. I condition this, however, by still pointing to New York City, which sadly lacks the ability to accommodate shows in accordance with its size as our leading marketing community. The events following 9111 have made New York's condition even more impossible. Mayor Guiliani became an impassioned, even spiritual, leader during the immediate period following the devastation of the World Trade Center. Michael Bloomberg, the city's new mayor, is faced with the enormous task of rebuilding and restoring confidence in this world leader. As a practical businessman with impressive credentials, he has the ability to achieve success. Time will be an enemy here, however, as too many expect too much too soon.
As a developer of the New National Lighthouse Museum located on Staten Island, we are experiencing pressure not necessarily forecast as a part of our business plan. Government, corporations and foundations have all revised their normal programs with an apparent effect on our progress. The original time table is now considered a work of fiction by most of those involved. There remains good reason for completing this project, and it will be done. The process, however, has been made "exceedingly difficult" by events beyond our control.
Here in New York we have to look beyond "Ground Zero" with some difficulty in order to see developments in what was normally a part of our daily business lives. The economic slow down has had a major negative impact on many of the different forms of marketing.
Recent reports have indicated that magazines were off sharply and major changes underway. Broadcast media has had its share of problems also. Trade shows, while suffering somewhat, have maintained a reasonable balance. Business travel to shows has been made more difficult by increased security at air terminals. Some of this is offset by the growth in local and regional shows.
CEIR is now conducting an ongoing report into the number of shows, so perhaps they could look into the growth, actual and potential, of this medium. Not being privy to their normal reports, I make this suggestion as an outside interested observer.
As we end the first quarter of 2002 it will be interesting to study the results of some of the major shows during this period. The Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas has always been a major forecaster of the industry in general. This year CES had 98,000 attendees, with over 2,000 exhibitors at the Las Vegas Convention Center. They used 1.2 million square feet in the process and the future indicated good times ahead for this industry.
Museums continue to expand but under trying times. Funding is difficult unless you happen to be a Metropolitan Museum of Art, a Museum of Modern Art or a Guggenheim Museum designed by Frank Gehry. It is still my opinion, shared by many, that architects are more concerned with the form of the structure than they are with the function. We are well within the era, which could be described as the "functionless follies," an architectural alliteration. Eventually there will be the stronger voices and the challenge to return the industry to the well-designed, meaningful structures.
While not necessarily a side note, the Chronicle of Philanthropy reported that contributions from the top ten givers dropped substantially in 2001. Bill and Melinda Gates gave only $2 billion to the Gates Foundation, down from $S billion the year before. Other donors have cut back substantially from the kind of mega gifts more common during the boom years. A list of the top 60 donors is being published. I'll look forward to seeing that in print.
While I had promised my usual trends and predictions list, it just doesn't seem appropriate at this time. Perhaps the lack of substantial data in a number of areas in which we work makes the task a little too much like crystal ball gazing.
My confidence in the econom remains strong and I do feel the worst of the recession is behind us. The second quarter of 2002 will prove our system remains the best and the bulls are back at work again. Add this to the patriotic spirit in evidence throughout the land and you will know that Americans united will always succeed.
REPRINTED FROM :EXIBIT BUILDER,INC.
WEB SITE: WWW.EXIBITBUILDER.NET
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